Why Abbas is Not Bluffing
by: Joshua Stanton on November 6th, 2009 | 2 Comments »

Photo from Agence-France Press/Getty Images
The peace process has reached another crisis point – yet one inadequately emphasized in the world media. Mahmoud Abbas just announced his intention not to run in the Palestinian elections in January. While many leaders (and reporters) have interpreted the move as a bluff intended to pressure the Obama Administration, Abbas may very well follow through if there is no sign of tangible progress towards peace and, more concretely still, the betterment of life in the Palestinian Territories.
Abbas is caught in a political bind, flanked by Hamas leaders on the right. Having seen his motorcade firsthand, I realize that the threat of his assassination by rightists is just as real as the possibility of his electoral defeat. Abbas needs to have something to show for his overtures of peace and so far does not have nearly enough. Much talk and little action on all sides is particularly harmful to Abbas, given his precarious political position. And his resignation would place a serious impediment before the peace process. The Israeli government has come to trust its Palestinian counterpart in an unprecedented way — a crucial piece that had been missing during the negotiations taking place with Yassar Arafat.
It is now incumbent upon the Obama Administration, and its expert negotiators (namely George Mitchell and Hillary Rodham Clinton) to increase Abbas’ legitimacy in the Palestinian territories and show what should have been true all along: that sincere steps toward peace come with immediate rewards. Abbas may be bluffing, but has far too many reasons to follow through on his declaration.



This may be one of the few times that I actually predicted something correctly. Let’s hope I’m wrong!
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/10/world/middleeast/10mideast.html?hp
Precisely what overtures towards peace has Abbas made for which he need to show some return? He has turned down Olmert’s offer of a state in virtually all the disputed territories, has not made a single concession and refuses to negotiate. If we want to ever reach peace, we have to stop encouraging Arab intransigence.